NISM Series XXI-A Negative Marking and Guessing Strategy
0.1 marks come off for every wrong answer on a 100-mark paper. That changes when guessing pays and when it does not.
NISM Series XXI-A deducts 10% of a question's marks for a wrong answer. Every question is worth 1 mark, so a wrong answer costs 0.10. A blank costs nothing. A correct answer earns 1.
That ratio of 10 to 1 is lenient. It means a guess is worth making on almost every question you cannot answer, and the real risk on this paper is not the penalty but running out of time.
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What one question is worth
Expected marks from one question, depending on how many wrong options you can rule out. 1 mark if right, 0.10 deducted if wrong:
Leave it blank
Chance of being right
None
Expected marks
0.00
Blind guess on four options
Chance of being right
1 in 4
Expected marks
+0.175
One option ruled out
Chance of being right
1 in 3
Expected marks
+0.27
Two options ruled out, or a two-choice question
Chance of being right
1 in 2
Expected marks
+0.45
You know it
Chance of being right
Certain
Expected marks
+1.00
| Your position | Chance of being right | Expected marks |
|---|---|---|
| Leave it blank | None | 0.00 |
| Blind guess on four options | 1 in 4 | +0.175 |
| One option ruled out | 1 in 3 | +0.27 |
| Two options ruled out, or a two-choice question | 1 in 2 | +0.45 |
| You know it | Certain | +1.00 |
The arithmetic, worked through
- 1
A blind guess on a four-option question
One time in four you gain 1 mark; three times in four you lose 0.10. Over four such guesses: +1.00 minus 0.30 = +0.70, or +0.175 per question.
- 2
The break-even point
A guess beats a blank when your chance of being right, p, satisfies p minus 0.10 x (1 minus p) above zero. That gives p above 1 in 11, about 9%. No four-option question is that hopeless.
- 3
Compared with the old 25% pattern
Under the old penalty a blind four-option guess was worth only +0.0625. At 0.10 it is worth almost three times as much. Strategies written for the old pattern are too cautious for the current one.
How many you need right if you attempt everything
Score = correct answers minus 0.10 x wrong answers, with all 100 attempted. The pass mark is 60.
70
Wrong
30
Score
67.0
Result
Pass
65
Wrong
35
Score
61.5
Result
Pass
64
Wrong
36
Score
60.4
Result
Pass
63
Wrong
37
Score
59.3
Result
Short by 0.7
60
Wrong
40
Score
56.0
Result
Short by 4
| Correct | Wrong | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 30 | 67.0 | Pass |
| 65 | 35 | 61.5 | Pass |
| 64 | 36 | 60.4 | Pass |
| 63 | 37 | 59.3 | Short by 0.7 |
| 60 | 40 | 56.0 | Short by 4 |
Free questions, scored the way the exam scores them.
Why 64, not 60
If you attempt all 100, you need 64 correct to clear 60. Leaving questions blank means you need fewer correct answers, but it also throws away every chance of a mark on those questions. Say you are confident on 62 and unsure on 38. Leaving the 38 blank scores 62, but only if every one of your confident answers is right. Guessing all 38 blind adds about 38 x 0.175, roughly 6.6 marks on average. Two or three wrong confident answers would sink the blank-heavy approach; the guesses are your cushion against them.
The clock is the real constraint
100 questions in 120 minutes is 72 seconds each. A calculation from chapter 10 can take three minutes. Take the questions you know first, flag the slow ones, return to them, and in the last few minutes put an answer on every remaining question. At 0.10 a question, a blank left on the screen at the end is the most expensive mistake on this paper.
How XXI-A tests this
The penalty itself is rarely a question. Where it hurts is confident wrong answers from stale knowledge: rules from old notes on PMS fees, or applying mutual fund rules to PMS. Each one costs 1.10 against the right answer, the mark you missed plus the 0.10 deducted. Revising the current rules saves more marks than any guessing plan.
FAQs
Is there negative marking in NISM Series XXI-A?expand_more
Yes. 10% of the marks assigned to a question is deducted for a wrong answer. Each question carries 1 mark, so that is 0.10 per wrong answer.
Is the XXI-A negative marking 25% or 10%?expand_more
10%, per NISM's exam page. The 25% figure belongs to the old pattern of 80 MCQs plus case-based questions, which some sources, including NISM's own FAQ page, still show.
Should I guess in NISM XXI-A if I don't know the answer?expand_more
At a 0.10 penalty, a guess beats a blank whenever you have better than a 1 in 11 chance of being right. A blind guess on four options is worth about +0.175 marks on average.
How many correct answers do I need to pass XXI-A?expand_more
The pass mark is 60 out of 100. If you attempt every question, 64 correct (and 36 wrong) gives 60.4. 63 correct gives 59.3, which is short.